Event Intelligence

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Iran launch the 100th wave of missile/drone strike under "Operation True Promise 4" before March 27?

2.9%

Avg YES

Manifold $3K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Warren Buffet live to 100?

26.5%

Avg YES

Manifold $3K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will the U.S. military be defeated by a rogue AI before 2035?

8.6%

Avg YES

Manifold $3K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will a socialist or communist revolution happen in a NATO country by 2030?

10.5%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

"Trojan horse"-like drone attack on US military planes before 2028

31.2%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Paramount Skydance acquires Warner Brothers Discovery before 10/31/2026

67.3%

Avg YES

Manifold $17K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.

16.4%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Military conflict between the US and Cuba before 2028?

66.2%

Avg YES

Manifold $4K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will NASA award a contract to a new commercial partner to develop a spacesuit by mid 2026?

40.9%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Europe find a peaceful agreement with Iran to pass the Strait of Hormuz in 2026 while the US/Iran war continues?

20.6%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will a supernova be clearly visible from Earth before 2100 by a conscious, self-aware entity?

61.9%

Avg YES

Manifold $4K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will DR Congo and Rwanda sign a ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?

31.1%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Brent crude exceed $100/barrel due to Iran-Gulf conflict by July 31, 2026?

98%

Avg YES

Manifold $1K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Qatar halt LNG exports for >7 days due to Iran conflict by June 30, 2026?

76.4%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will the EU approve a new Ukraine aid package before May 1, 2026?

29.1%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Did Russia kill Jeffrey Epstein?

8.5%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Pentagon get $200 billion in funds for the Iran War before the 2026 midterms?

52.8%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Lebanon be at war with Israel before the end of the Israel-Hamas Conflict?

21.9%

Avg YES

Manifold $11K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Lebanon survive the current conflict in the middle east?

89.7%

Avg YES

Manifold $1K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

China implements 30+ infrastructure connectivity projects in Africa by EOY 2027?

73.1%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will the album “Warriors” be adapted as a musical that premieres by 2030?

57%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will a nuclear war start over a shitty old cargo ship in 2026?

5%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]

15.9%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Russia launch an invasion against at least one of the Baltic states by February 2029?

18.6%

Avg YES

Manifold $46K