Event Intelligence

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Russia attack Baltic states (Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia) by 2030?

25.3%

Avg YES

Manifold $24K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will the Dow hit 50k before the number of American troops in Iran does?

87.9%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Israel invade Europe in 2050?

1%

Avg YES

Manifold $3K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

[ACX 2026] Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027?

26.6%

Avg YES

Manifold $3K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

By the end of the Ukraine war Crimea will be a part of Ukraine again?

9.5%

Avg YES

Manifold $21K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

A month after the Israel-Hamas war stops will Israel still be firing rockets into Syria or Lebanon

42%

Avg YES

Manifold $1K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Israel attack Georgia, Armenia, Greece, Bulgaria in 2029?

1%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Russia take Poltava by EOY 2028?

19.1%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Iranian Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Hossein Deghan still be alive on June 1st 2026?

69.8%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

US defaults on debt held by China before 2027?

2.5%

Avg YES

Manifold $104K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will the number of people employed as software developers in the US decline by more than 15% from 2023 to 2028?

35.7%

Avg YES

Manifold $3K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Hamas still be in power in Gaza on Cinco de Mayo 2026?

69.9%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will China bomb any country by the end of 2026?

12%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Le régime iranienne tombera 2 avril

12.3%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will the Russo-Ukrainian war end within a month if Putin dies

44.2%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

If NATO troops fight in the Ukraine war, will Russia use a nuclear weapon?

25%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

WIll Dr Jonathan Sackner Bernstein (Parkinson's researcher) win a major medicine/biology award by mid 2036

9.1%

Avg YES

Manifold $22K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Ukraine have full control over Crimea by the end of 2030?

7.5%

Avg YES

Manifold $7K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will there be a >0 value liquidity event for me, a former Consensys Software Inc. employee, on my shares of the company?

30.4%

Avg YES

Manifold $54K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force? [Metaculus]

65.7%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will an Iranian ballistic missile strike the US/UK base at Diego Garcia before June 1st 2026?

10%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will the US have state-sanctioned death squads by Jan 20th 2029?

23.9%

Avg YES

Manifold $1K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Iran's govt change AND all US sanctions on Iran be lifted by 2030?

28.7%

Avg YES

Manifold $1K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Finland possess a Nuclear Weapon of Mass Destruction by EoY 2050?

39%

Avg YES

Manifold