Event Intelligence

🌍 Geopolitics 2 markets

US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by March 7?

0.5%

Avg YES

Polymarket $176K

🌍 Geopolitics 2 markets

Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?

9.7%

Avg YES

Polymarket, Manifold $77K

🌍 Geopolitics 2 markets

Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of 2026?

1.7%

Avg YES

Polymarket $1.2M

🌍 Geopolitics 2 markets

Kurds declare independence from Iran?

12.3%

Avg YES

Polymarket $84K

🌍 Geopolitics 2 markets

Will "War Machine" be the top US Netflix movie this week?

45.6%

Avg YES

Polymarket $15K

🌍 Geopolitics 2 markets

Will Iran appoint a new Supreme Leader by April 1st, 2026?

57.8%

Avg YES

Manifold $8K

🌍 Geopolitics 2 markets

Will the United States (US) withdraw from NATO by December 31, 2028?

10.9%

Avg YES

Manifold $26K

🌍 Geopolitics 2 markets

Will the Iranian regime fall by end of June?

12.4%

Avg YES

Manifold $6K

🌍 Geopolitics 2 markets

Isaiah Stewart: Points O/U 8.5

50%

Avg YES

Polymarket

🌍 Geopolitics 2 markets

Will America send troops to Iran?

40.9%

Avg YES

Manifold $14K

🌍 Geopolitics 2 markets

Will the United States conduct a military strike against Cuba in 2026?

32.3%

Avg YES

Manifold $8K

🌍 Geopolitics 2 markets

At least one fatality from nuclear weapons in 2026?

6.8%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🌍 Geopolitics 2 markets

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

41%

Avg YES

Manifold $8K

🌍 Geopolitics 2 markets

Will USA change Iran regime

19.2%

Avg YES

Manifold $36K

🌍 Geopolitics 2 markets

Will the US or Israel occupy Kharg Island (Iran) before June 1, 2026?

43.8%

Avg YES

Manifold $1K

🌍 Geopolitics 2 markets

Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?

60.2%

Avg YES

Manifold $224K

🌍 Geopolitics 2 markets

Will there be a war between Thailand and Cambodia before 2030?

42%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🌍 Geopolitics 2 markets

Will r/WorldNews unpin the Russia/Ukraine thread before EOY 2026?

51.1%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 2 markets

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2027?

78.2%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 2 markets

Will China continue gallium export restrictions targeting Japan on May 1, 2026?

87.1%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 2 markets

Will the US and Russia start a new nuclear arms race before 2028?

23.7%

Avg YES

Manifold $3K

🌍 Geopolitics 2 markets

Will Iran sink a US Navy ship before 2030?

22%

Avg YES

Manifold $20K

🌍 Geopolitics 2 markets

Nuclear weapon used offensively in 2026

26.9%

Avg YES

Manifold $14K

🌍 Geopolitics 2 markets

Will OpenAI stick to its commitment to the same red lines as Anthropic for the US military using its AI by EOY 2026?

50.3%

Avg YES

Manifold $3K