Event Intelligence

The same real-world event, tracked across every prediction platform. Compare Polymarket vs Manifold odds on identical questions.

756 canonical events • Updated every sync cycle
All 🗳️ Politics ⚽ Sports ₿ Crypto 🤖 AI & Tech 💰 Business & Finance 🌍 Geopolitics 🔬 Science & Health 🎬 Entertainment 🔮 Other
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🗳️ Politics 2 markets
Will Biden OR Trump die in 2026?
10%
Avg YES
Manifold $9K
🗳️ Politics 2 markets
Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump pass away while serving their second presidential term?
9.7%
Avg YES
Manifold $8K
🗳️ Politics 2 markets
Will the 2026 US Midterm Elections generally be considered free and fair?
55.6%
Avg YES
Manifold $5K
🗳️ Politics 2 markets
Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act by April 30, 2026?
33.6%
Avg YES
Manifold $69K
🗳️ Politics 2 markets
Will any Republican Vote to Impeach Trump in 2026?
29%
Avg YES
Manifold $10K
🗳️ Politics 2 markets
Will Trump spend any time in prison before he dies?
8.2%
Avg YES
Manifold $51K
🗳️ Politics 2 markets
Will Trump be held under house arrest before he dies?
7.6%
Avg YES
Manifold $10K
🗳️ Politics 2 markets
Will Joe Biden live to see Luffy find the One Piece?
52.7%
Avg YES
Manifold $51K
🗳️ Politics 2 markets
Will Republicans win the Texas 15th congressional district in 2026?
59.5%
Avg YES
Manifold
🗳️ Politics 2 markets
Will trump be alive until March 10 2026?
99.3%
Avg YES
Manifold $5K
🗳️ Politics 2 markets
Was the first female US President born before 1990?
39.9%
Avg YES
Manifold $5K
🗳️ Politics 2 markets
Will Harris English win the 2026 THE PLAYERS Championship?
0.2%
Avg YES
Polymarket $838K
🗳️ Politics 2 markets
Will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve be 600M barrels of oil or more at the end of Trump's term?
28.5%
Avg YES
Manifold
🗳️ Politics 2 markets
Israel holds free and fair election in 2026?
49.9%
Avg YES
Manifold $5K
🗳️ Politics 2 markets
Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?
17.1%
Avg YES
Manifold $520K
🗳️ Politics 2 markets
Will Trump say "MAHA" or "Make America Healthy Again" during Ohio visit?
0%
Avg YES
Polymarket $15K
🗳️ Politics 2 markets
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?
2.3%
Avg YES
Polymarket $5.9M
🗳️ Politics 2 markets
SAVE Act becomes law by April 30, 2026?
18.5%
Avg YES
Polymarket $93K
🗳️ Politics 2 markets
Will Donald Trump be the Republican party nominee in the 2028 US presidential election?
2.4%
Avg YES
Manifold $26K
🗳️ Politics 2 markets
If Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term? (V-DEM)
50%
Avg YES
Manifold $45K
🗳️ Politics 2 markets
Will JD Vance be the 48th (next) President?
35.7%
Avg YES
Manifold $9K
🗳️ Politics 2 markets
Will Labour win a by election before the next UK general election?
62.8%
Avg YES
Manifold $3K
🗳️ Politics 2 markets
Will Trump apologize for bombing Iranian school?
5%
Avg YES
Manifold $86K
🗳️ Politics 2 markets
Will Keir Starmer be UK Prime Minister at the end of 2030?
10.8%
Avg YES
Manifold $6K
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