Markets / AI & Tech / [ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orb...

Manifold AI & Tech Expires in 219 days OPEN

[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?

25.29%

Market YES

74.71%

Market NO

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Pulse Score

Model v1 · Not financial advice

Verdict

29.5%

AI YES

Confidence

Reliability

Market appears fairly priced Edge: +4.5 pts

Market leans towards SpaceX not successfully refueling a Starship in orbit in 2026.

The prediction market indicates a 25% probability of SpaceX successfully refueling a Starship in orbit during 2026, with a stronger consensus against at 75%. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability of success at 29.5%, but overall confidence remains moderate at 55 out of 100, indicating uncertainty in the outcome.

AI Market Analysis

1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
2 The probability gap between market and AI suggests potential for future adjustments.
3 Confidence level indicates moderate uncertainty regarding the event.
4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for significant developments.
5 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 4.5.