Markets / AI & Tech / At the start of 2030 will I believe that OpenAI had AGI in 2...
Manifold AI & Tech Expires in 1242 days OPEN

At the start of 2030 will I believe that OpenAI had AGI in 2024?

9.88%
Market YES
90.12%
Market NO
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Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
NO
Verdict
16.38%
AI YES
40
Confidence
35
Reliability
Insufficient data for confident assessment Edge: +6.5 pts

Low belief in OpenAI achieving AGI by 2024, with a strong majority predicting otherwise.

The market shows a predominant skepticism regarding OpenAI achieving AGI by 2024, with only 9.88% of participants believing it will happen. The Pulse AI probability indicates a slightly higher belief at 16.38%, but overall confidence remains low at 40 out of 100. The edge of 6.5 suggests insufficient data for a confident assessment of future developments.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' on AGI by 2024.
  • 2 A majority of participants show skepticism about OpenAI's timeline.
  • 3 The Pulse AI probability indicates some belief in AGI potential sooner.
  • 4 Confidence level is relatively low, reflecting uncertainty in predictions.
  • 5 Time until expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in views.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
Major breakthroughs in AI technology or research
Public announcements from OpenAI regarding AGI progress
Significant changes in expert opinions or market sentiment
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $422
Liquidity $0
Resolves 01 Jan 2030
Status Open
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