Meta cheated at LM Arena to pump Llama-4's score?

The market indicates a low probability of Meta cheating at LM Arena.

Current market probabilities show a strong belief that Meta did not cheat, with a 79.07% NO probability. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance of YES at 25.43%, indicating some uncertainty. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 55 out of 100.

• 1 Current sentiment leans heavily towards NO on cheating.
• 2 Market probability suggests skepticism about the cheating claim.
• 3 Pulse AI shows a slightly higher probability for YES, indicating some doubt.
• 4 Confidence level of 55 suggests moderate uncertainty in the market.
• 5 Time to expiry is 483 hours, allowing for potential developments.