Markets / AI & Tech / OpenAI releases model with 5M+ context by end of March 2026?...
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OpenAI releases model with 5M+ context by end of March 2026?

1.97%
Market YES
98.03%
Market NO
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Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
NO
Verdict
7.82%
AI YES
55
Confidence
45
Reliability
Market appears fairly priced Edge: +4.5 pts

The market indicates a low likelihood of OpenAI releasing a model with 5M+ context by March 2026.

Current market probabilities suggest a strong belief that OpenAI will not release a model with 5M+ context by the specified date, with a NO probability of 96.68%. The Pulse AI probability also reflects skepticism, albeit with a slightly higher YES probability of 7.82%, indicating some uncertainty in the market's consensus.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
  • 2 Current probabilities suggest the market is fairly priced.
  • 3 Confidence level is moderate at 55/100.
  • 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 502 hours.
  • 5 The market reflects a cautious outlook on OpenAI's future model releases.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
Announcement of significant advancements in AI model capabilities by OpenAI
Increased competition in the AI space prompting OpenAI to accelerate development
Changes in funding or strategic direction for OpenAI
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $15,220
Liquidity $0
Resolves 01 Apr 2026
Status Open
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