Public LLM exceeds superforecaster on Forecast bench by EOY 2026?

Market shows a close split on whether LLMs will outperform superforecasters by 2026.

The market indicates a slight preference for the NO outcome, suggesting skepticism about public LLMs surpassing superforecasters by the end of 2026. With probabilities closely aligned between the market and Pulse AI, the situation appears balanced, reflecting uncertainty in advancements in AI capabilities. The confidence level of 45/100 indicates moderate belief in the predictions made by participants.

• 1 Current market probability favors NO slightly at 56.47%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability is closely aligned, indicating consensus.
• 3 The edge of 4.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 45/100, reflecting uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at over 11231 hours, allowing for developments.