The probability of "extremely bad outcomes e.g., human extinction" from AGI will be >5% in next survey of AI experts

Experts see a 67.49% chance of >5% extinction risk from AGI in the next survey.

The current market probability indicates a strong belief among participants that the risk of extremely bad outcomes from AGI will exceed 5% in the upcoming survey of AI experts. With a slight edge suggesting the market is fairly priced, confidence levels are moderate at 55 out of 100, reflecting some uncertainty among traders.

• 1 Current market probability is 67.49% for >5% extinction risk.
• 2 Pulse AI probability is slightly lower at 62.49%.
• 3 Market confidence is moderate at 55 out of 100.
• 4 Time to expiry is 426 hours, allowing for potential shifts.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with a -5 edge.