Will a mainstream AI model pass the stick figure arrow name test in 2026?

There's a 66% chance a mainstream AI will pass the test by 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief, at 66%, that a mainstream AI model will successfully pass the stick figure arrow name test by 2026. The market appears fairly priced with a slight edge of -5, suggesting that the probabilities are closely aligned with the Pulse AI's assessment of 61%. With a confidence level of 55 out of 100 and a significant time frame of 7029 hours until expiry, the market reflects a cautious optimism about advancements in AI capabilities.

• 1 Current market probability favors a YES outcome at 66%.
• 2 Pulse AI's assessment is slightly lower at 61%.
• 3 Market edge of -5 indicates fair pricing of probabilities.
• 4 Confidence level of 55 suggests moderate certainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential developments.