Will a misaligned AI kill 1% of the world population within any 12 month period before 2030?

Low probability of a misaligned AI causing significant harm before 2030.

The prediction market shows a 7% probability for a misaligned AI killing 1% of the world population before 2030, with a stronger consensus against this outcome at 93%. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability of 13.5%, indicating some concern, but overall confidence remains low at 45 out of 100.

• 1 Current sentiment leans heavily towards skepticism about AI risks.
• 2 Market probability indicates a strong belief in AI safety by 2030.
• 3 The edge of 6.5 suggests insufficient data for a confident assessment.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.
• 5 Low liquidity may affect market responsiveness to new information.