Will a new AI model be more capable than GPT-4 before January 1, 2027?

High probability suggests confidence in a new AI model surpassing GPT-4 by 2027.

The market indicates an 86.98% probability that a new AI model will outperform GPT-4 before 2027, reflecting strong optimism in advancements in AI technology. The Pulse AI probability of 79.98% further supports this sentiment, although the edge of -7 indicates a lack of sufficient data for a confident assessment. With 6657 hours until expiry, the market has time to react to emerging developments in AI capabilities.

• 1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly positive towards new AI advancements.
• 2 The high probability reflects expectations of rapid technological progress.
• 3 Insufficient data leads to a cautious edge assessment.
• 4 The time to expiry allows for potential shifts based on new developments.
• 5 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment, indicating confidence.