Markets / AI & Tech / Will AI achieve AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) by 203...
Manifold AI & Tech Expires in 1240 days OPEN

Will AI achieve AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) by 2030?

47.49%
Market YES
52.51%
Market NO
Trade on Manifold →
Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
TOO CLOSE
Verdict
53.99%
AI YES
45
Confidence
35
Reliability
Insufficient data for confident assessment Edge: +6.5 pts

Market shows a near split on AI achieving AGI by 2030.

The prediction market indicates a close contest between the likelihood of AI achieving AGI by 2030, with a slight edge towards 'No.' The Pulse AI probability suggests a more optimistic view, favoring 'Yes,' but overall confidence remains low, reflecting uncertainty in this rapidly evolving field.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market probability is nearly evenly split.
  • 2 Pulse AI shows a slightly higher probability for 'Yes.'
  • 3 Confidence level is relatively low at 45/100.
  • 4 Edge of 6.5 indicates insufficient data for a strong conclusion.
  • 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential developments.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
Major breakthroughs in AI research
Significant public or private investments in AGI projects
New regulatory frameworks affecting AI development
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $266
Liquidity $0
Resolves 31 Dec 2029
Status Open
Related Markets
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality...
25.27% NO manifold
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?...
5.33% NO manifold
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on ...
0.05% NO polymarket
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100...
13.99% NO manifold
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on M...
0.05% NO polymarket