Will AI out-wipe humanity by 2030?

11.2%

Market YES

88.8%

Market NO

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Pulse Score

Model v1 · Not financial advice

Verdict

15.7%

AI YES

Confidence

Reliability

Market appears fairly priced Edge: +4.5 pts

The market predicts a low probability of AI wiping out humanity by 2030.

The current market probability for AI out-wiping humanity by 2030 stands at 11.20% for 'YES' and 88.8% for 'NO', indicating a strong belief that this scenario is unlikely. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely, suggesting a consensus among participants that the risk is minimal. With a confidence level of 50/100 and an edge of 4.5, the market appears to be fairly priced.

AI Market Analysis

1 Current market sentiment leans heavily towards 'NO'.
2 The probability of 'YES' is relatively low at 11.20%.
3 Pulse AI probability suggests a slightly higher risk perception at 15.7%.
4 The market has a moderate confidence level of 50/100.
5 Time to expiry is extensive at 33047 hours, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.