Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2040?

The market shows a low probability of AI wiping out humanity before 2040.

Currently, the market assigns an 8% probability to the possibility of AI causing human extinction before 2040, with a strong majority (92%) believing it will not happen. The Pulse AI model suggests a slightly higher probability of 12.5%, indicating some divergence in expectations. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 55 out of 100.

• 1 Market sentiment strongly favors the belief that AI will not threaten humanity.
• 2 The probability of 8% reflects a cautious but not alarmist view on AI risks.
• 3 Pulse AI's higher estimate suggests some analysts see more potential for risk.
• 4 The market's edge of 4.5 indicates it is well-aligned with current expectations.
• 5 Time until expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.