Markets / AI & Tech / Will an AI be elected to public office in the USA by 2034? (...
Manifold AI & Tech Expires in 2776 days OPEN

Will an AI be elected to public office in the USA by 2034? (850M subsidy)

22.74%
Market YES
77.26%
Market NO
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Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
NO
Verdict
27.24%
AI YES
50
Confidence
45
Reliability
Market appears fairly priced Edge: +4.5 pts

Market favors 'NO' for AI election to public office in the USA by 2034.

The prediction market indicates a 22.74% probability for an AI being elected to public office in the USA by 2034, with a stronger consensus against it at 77.26%. The Pulse AI offers a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 27.24%, suggesting some divergence in sentiment. The overall confidence level is moderate, indicating uncertainty in the market's future direction.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily towards 'NO'.
  • 2 The probability gap suggests skepticism about AI in politics.
  • 3 Historical trends show limited precedent for AI in public roles.
  • 4 Market liquidity appears stable with a substantial subsidy.
  • 5 Time until expiry allows for potential shifts in public opinion.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
Significant advancements in AI capabilities or public acceptance
Legislative changes allowing AI candidacies
High-profile endorsements or campaigns involving AI
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $2,900
Liquidity $0
Resolves 01 Jan 2034
Status Open
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