Will an AI system be known to have resisted shutdown before the end of 2026?

Market leans towards AI systems not resisting shutdown by 2026.

The prediction market indicates a higher probability for 'NO' at 62.37%, suggesting skepticism about AI systems resisting shutdown. The Pulse AI probability is slightly more optimistic at 42.13% for 'YES', but overall confidence remains moderate at 60/100. With 6689 hours until expiry, the market appears fairly priced with an edge of 4.5.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors a 'NO' outcome significantly.
• 2 The difference between market and Pulse AI probabilities suggests varied expectations.
• 3 Moderate confidence level indicates uncertainty among participants.
• 4 Time to expiry allows for potential shifts in sentiment or information.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced, reflecting balanced views on the topic.