Will an international pause on large AI training runs be in effect on Jan 1, 2028?

Low probability of an international pause on AI training runs by 2028.

The market indicates a 9% probability for a pause on large AI training runs by January 1, 2028, with a strong consensus against it. The Pulse AI model suggests a slightly higher likelihood at 15.5%, but overall confidence remains low at 40 out of 100, indicating uncertainty in the market's assessment.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors a continuation of AI training activities.
• 2 The gap between market probability and Pulse AI suggests differing perspectives.
• 3 Low confidence level indicates potential volatility in predictions.
• 4 Time until expiry is substantial, allowing for evolving circumstances.
• 5 Liquidity appears limited, which may affect market responsiveness.