Will an LLM beat a Super GM Bot on chess.com by 2028?

The market favors a Super GM Bot over an LLM in chess by 2028.

Current market probabilities indicate a strong belief that a Super GM Bot will outperform a large language model (LLM) in chess by 2028, with a 72.23% likelihood of a NO outcome. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for an LLM victory at 32.27%, but overall confidence remains moderate at 50/100, reflecting uncertainty in advancements in AI capabilities. The market appears fairly priced with an edge of 4.5.

• 1 Market leans heavily towards NO outcome at 72.23%.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slightly more optimistic view for YES at 32.27%.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate, indicating uncertainty in predictions.
• 4 An edge of 4.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 5 Time until expiry is significant, allowing for potential developments.