Will an LLM from OpenAI beat a FIDE grandmaster in chess by the end of 2028?

The market shows a close probability for an LLM beating a grandmaster by 2028.

With a market probability of 48% for a yes outcome and 52% for no, the predictions are closely contested. The Pulse AI probability suggests a slight favor towards a yes outcome at 54.5%, indicating some optimism about advancements in AI chess capabilities.

• 1 Market probabilities are nearly evenly split, indicating uncertainty.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slight edge towards a yes outcome, suggesting potential optimism.
• 3 The edge of 6.5 indicates insufficient data for a confident assessment.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 45/100, reflecting mixed sentiment.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential developments in AI technology.