Markets / AI & Tech / Will an LLM get at least 70% on the 2026 USAMO for less than...
Manifold AI & Tech Expires in 141 days OPEN

Will an LLM get at least 70% on the 2026 USAMO for less than $2?

2.18%
Market YES
97.82%
Market NO
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Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
NO
Verdict
30.38%
AI YES
55
Confidence
45
Reliability
Market appears fairly priced Edge: +4.5 pts

Market favors NO, indicating low confidence in LLM achieving 70% on USAMO.

The prediction market shows a strong inclination towards the NO outcome, with a probability of 74.12%. This suggests skepticism regarding the capability of an LLM to score at least 70% on the 2026 USAMO for less than $2. The market appears fairly priced, with a slight edge indicating balanced expectations.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily towards NO.
  • 2 The Pulse AI probability is slightly more optimistic but still favors NO.
  • 3 Confidence level is moderate at 55/100, reflecting uncertainty.
  • 4 Time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential developments.
  • 5 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 4.5.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
Advancements in LLM technology improving performance
Changes in USAMO format or scoring criteria
Increased investment in LLM training and resources
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $7,168
Liquidity $0
Resolves 31 Dec 2026
Status Open
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