Will Claude Sonnet 5 exceed 85% on SWE-bench verified?

47.02%

Market YES

52.98%

Market NO

Trade on Manifold →

Pulse Score

Model v1 · Not financial advice

TOO CLOSE

Verdict

53.52%

AI YES

Confidence

Reliability

Insufficient data for confident assessment Edge: +6.5 pts

Market sentiment is split on Claude Sonnet 5 exceeding 85% on SWE-bench.

The market shows a slight lean towards NO at 52.98%, while the Pulse AI indicates a marginal YES at 53.52%. With a confidence level of 50/100 and an edge of 6.5, the data suggests uncertainty in predicting the outcome.

AI Market Analysis

1 Current market probability favors NO slightly at 52.98%.
2 Pulse AI shows a narrow YES advantage at 53.52%.
3 Confidence level is moderate at 50/100, indicating uncertainty.
4 The edge of 6.5 suggests insufficient data for a strong conclusion.
5 Time to expiry is substantial at 6837 hours, allowing for potential developments.