Markets / AI & Tech / Will @EliezerYudkowsky reverse his opinion on AI safety, bef...
Manifold AI & Tech Expires in 1241 days OPEN

Will @EliezerYudkowsky reverse his opinion on AI safety, before 2030?

5.63%
Market YES
94.37%
Market NO
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Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
NO
Verdict
10.13%
AI YES
50
Confidence
45
Reliability
Market appears fairly priced Edge: +4.5 pts

Low probability of Eliezer Yudkowsky reversing his AI safety stance before 2030.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus against the likelihood of Eliezer Yudkowsky changing his opinion on AI safety, with a NO probability of 94.37%. The market appears fairly priced based on the edge of 4.5, suggesting that current sentiment is stable but could shift with new developments in AI discourse.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
  • 2 The probability of a YES outcome is notably low at 5.63%.
  • 3 Market edge suggests fair pricing without significant misalignment.
  • 4 Confidence level is moderate at 50/100, indicating uncertainty.
  • 5 Time to expiry is extensive, allowing for potential shifts in opinion.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
Significant new research challenging current AI safety views
Public statements from Yudkowsky indicating a shift in perspective
Major events in AI development that impact safety concerns
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $4,913
Liquidity $0
Resolves 01 Jan 2030
Status Open
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