Markets / AI & Tech / Will Google Gemini rank above ChatGPT in the App Store at EO...
Manifold AI & Tech Expires in 214 days OPEN

Will Google Gemini rank above ChatGPT in the App Store at EOY 2026?

33.29%
Market YES
66.71%
Market NO
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Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
NO
Verdict
39.79%
AI YES
50
Confidence
35
Reliability
Insufficient data for confident assessment Edge: +6.5 pts

Market favors ChatGPT over Google Gemini for App Store ranking by EOY 2026.

The prediction market indicates a higher probability that ChatGPT will rank above Google Gemini in the App Store by the end of 2026, with a 66.71% likelihood against 33.29% for Gemini. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, although with a slightly higher probability for Gemini. The edge of 6.5 suggests insufficient data for a confident assessment.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current sentiment strongly favors ChatGPT over Google Gemini.
  • 2 Market probability shows a clear lead for ChatGPT at 66.71%.
  • 3 Pulse AI suggests a slightly more optimistic view for Gemini at 39.79%.
  • 4 The edge of 6.5 indicates uncertainty in the data available.
  • 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential market shifts.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
Major updates or features announced for Google Gemini
Significant shifts in user preferences or market trends
Changes in App Store ranking algorithms or policies
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $720
Liquidity $0
Resolves 31 Dec 2026
Status Open
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