Will Hamnet be the Oscars 2026 Best Picture Winner?

Hamnet is highly unlikely to win Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars.

Current market probabilities indicate a strong belief that Hamnet will not win the Best Picture award, with a 98.99% NO probability. The Pulse AI also reflects a low likelihood of victory, although it assigns a slightly higher probability of 6.01% for a YES outcome. The confidence level is moderate, suggesting that while the data leans heavily towards NO, there is insufficient information for a definitive assessment.

• 1 Market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome for Hamnet.
• 2 Current probabilities suggest low confidence in Hamnet's Oscar chances.
• 3 The edge rating indicates insufficient data for a confident prediction.
• 4 Time to expiry is limited, with only 185 hours remaining.
• 5 The market is highly liquid, reflecting active participation.