Will it be possible to disentangle most of the features learned by a model comparable to GPT-4 this decade?

Disentangling GPT-4 features this decade is viewed as unlikely by the market.

The market indicates a higher probability of a 'NO' outcome at 63.33%, suggesting skepticism about the feasibility of disentangling features from models like GPT-4 within the decade. The Pulse AI probability also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with slightly more optimism. The edge of 6.5 indicates insufficient data for a confident assessment, highlighting uncertainty in the market's predictions.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans towards skepticism about feature disentanglement.
• 2 The majority probability favors a 'NO' outcome at 63.33%.
• 3 Pulse AI shows slightly more optimism, with a YES probability of 43.17%.
• 4 The edge of 6.5 suggests limited data for a strong conclusion.
• 5 Time to expiry is significant, providing ample opportunity for sentiment shifts.