Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-2 before 2030?

Market leans towards NO on mechanistic interpretability for GPT-2 being solved by 2030.

The prediction market shows a strong inclination towards the belief that mechanistic interpretability for GPT-2 will not be essentially solved before 2030, with a NO probability of 69.24%. The Pulse AI model offers a slightly more optimistic view but still aligns closely with the market's sentiment, indicating a general consensus on the challenges ahead.

• 1 Current market probability favors NO at 69.24%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability is also leaning towards NO at 64.74%.
• 3 The edge of 4.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 50/100, indicating uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 33269 hours, allowing for potential developments.