Will OpenAI announce a new full-size, frontier model >5.4 before May 1, 2026? (aka “Spud”)

Market shows a slight favor for OpenAI announcing a new model before May 2026.

The market probability indicates a 55% chance of OpenAI announcing a new frontier model by May 2026, suggesting moderate optimism. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely, reflecting uncertainty with a narrow edge of -3.5, indicating insufficient data for a confident assessment.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans slightly towards a YES.
• 2 The probability gap is narrow, indicating uncertainty.
• 3 Historical trends in AI model releases could influence outcomes.
• 4 Market confidence is moderate at 55 out of 100.
• 5 Time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential developments.