Markets / AI & Tech / Will OpenAI announce a new model that EpochAI estimates is a...
Manifold AI & Tech Expires today OPEN

Will OpenAI announce a new model that EpochAI estimates is at least as large as GPT-4.5, before August 2026?

41.46%
Market YES
58.54%
Market NO
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Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
TOO CLOSE
Verdict
45.96%
AI YES
60
Confidence
45
Reliability
Market appears fairly priced Edge: +4.5 pts

Market shows a slight lean against OpenAI announcing a new model by August 2026.

The market indicates a 41.46% probability for OpenAI to announce a model at least as large as GPT-4.5 before August 2026, while the Pulse AI probability is slightly higher at 45.96%. The confidence level is moderate at 60/100, suggesting uncertainty in the market's expectations.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market sentiment is slightly bearish on new model announcements.
  • 2 The probabilities suggest a balanced view but lean towards skepticism.
  • 3 Historical trends show fluctuating interest in AI model releases.
  • 4 Market liquidity appears stable, with no significant volatility.
  • 5 Time pressure is moderate, with over 3270 hours until expiry.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
Announcement of new AI model development by OpenAI
Release of competitive models by other companies
Shifts in AI research funding or focus areas
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $2,131
Liquidity $0
Resolves 01 Aug 2026
Status Open
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