Markets / AI & Tech / Will "OpenAI employees: Now is the time to stop doi..." make...
Manifold AI & Tech Expires in 539 days OPEN

Will "OpenAI employees: Now is the time to stop doi..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

10.93%
Market YES
89.07%
Market NO
Trade on Manifold →
Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
NO
Verdict
17.43%
AI YES
40
Confidence
35
Reliability
Insufficient data for confident assessment Edge: +6.5 pts

Low probability for the post to make the top fifty in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review.

The current market probability for the post making the top fifty is low at 10.93%, with a stronger consensus against it at 89.07%. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, indicating a general skepticism about the post's potential impact within the specified timeframe.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
  • 2 Market shows a significant gap between human and AI probabilities.
  • 3 The edge of 6.5 suggests limited data for a confident prediction.
  • 4 Confidence level is moderate at 40/100, indicating uncertainty.
  • 5 Time to expiry is extensive, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
Increased engagement or discussion around the post
A notable endorsement from influential figures in the AI community
Changes in the criteria or voting process for the Annual Review
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $275
Liquidity $0
Resolves 01 Feb 2028
Status Open
Related Markets
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality...
25.27% NO manifold
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?...
5.33% NO manifold
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on ...
0.05% NO polymarket
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100...
13.99% NO manifold
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on M...
0.05% NO polymarket