Markets / AI & Tech / Will Sam Altman reference OpenAI achieving AGI in five tweet...
Manifold AI & Tech Expires in 8909 days OPEN

Will Sam Altman reference OpenAI achieving AGI in five tweets prior to the official announcement?

31.69%
Market YES
68.31%
Market NO
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Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
NO
Verdict
38.19%
AI YES
40
Confidence
35
Reliability
Insufficient data for confident assessment Edge: +6.5 pts

Market leans towards no references from Altman before the AGI announcement.

The market shows a strong inclination towards Sam Altman not referencing OpenAI achieving AGI in five tweets, with a probability of 68.31% for 'NO'. The Pulse AI model suggests a slightly higher likelihood of 'YES' at 38.19%, but overall confidence remains low at 40/100, indicating uncertainty in the predictions.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market probability favors 'NO' at 68.31%.
  • 2 Pulse AI indicates a higher probability for 'YES' at 38.19%.
  • 3 Confidence level is low at 40/100, reflecting uncertainty.
  • 4 Time to expiry is substantial at 217168 hours, allowing for potential shifts.
  • 5 Market edge of 6.5 suggests insufficient data for a confident assessment.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
Sam Altman makes a public statement about AGI before the announcement
Increased speculation or leaks regarding AGI from OpenAI
Changes in market sentiment due to external events in the AI sector
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $180
Liquidity $0
Resolves 31 Dec 2050
Status Open
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