Will SpaceX will do orbital refilling several times in 2026 with Starship V3?

Low probability for SpaceX to conduct orbital refilling with Starship V3 in 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against the likelihood of SpaceX performing orbital refilling multiple times in 2026, with a NO probability of 89.29%. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with a slightly higher YES probability of 17.21%. The edge of 6.5 indicates insufficient data for a confident assessment.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The probability of YES is notably low at 10.71%.
• 3 Pulse AI suggests a slightly more optimistic view with a YES at 17.21%.
• 4 The confidence level is moderate at 50/100, indicating uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 6948 hours, allowing for potential developments.