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Will "Terrified Comments on Corrigibility in Claude..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

12.55%

Market YES

87.45%

Market NO

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Pulse Score

Model v1 · Not financial advice

Verdict

19.05%

AI YES

Confidence

Reliability

Insufficient data for confident assessment Edge: +6.5 pts

The market shows a low probability for the post to make the top fifty in LessWrong's review.

Currently, the market probability for the post making the top fifty is at 12.55%, indicating a strong sentiment against it. The Pulse AI probability is slightly higher at 19.05%, suggesting some potential for reconsideration, but overall confidence remains low at 40 out of 100.

AI Market Analysis

1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
2 The edge of 6.5 indicates insufficient data for a confident assessment.
3 Time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential shifts in opinion.
4 Market confidence is relatively low at 40/100, reflecting uncertainty.
5 The discrepancy between market and Pulse AI probabilities suggests differing assessments of the post's impact.