Markets / AI & Tech / Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major A...
Manifold AI & Tech Expires in 1240 days OPEN

Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2030?

30%
Market YES
70%
Market NO
Trade on Manifold →
Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
NO
Verdict
34.5%
AI YES
50
Confidence
45
Reliability
Market appears fairly priced Edge: +4.5 pts

Market indicates a low probability of an assassination attempt on a CEO by 2030.

The prediction market shows a 30% probability for an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2030, with a higher confidence in the NO outcome at 70%. The Pulse AI probability slightly favors the NO outcome as well, suggesting a consensus on the unlikelihood of such an event occurring.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current sentiment leans towards a low likelihood of an assassination attempt.
  • 2 Market probability aligns closely with Pulse AI predictions.
  • 3 The confidence level is moderate, indicating uncertainty in the market.
  • 4 Time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential changes in sentiment.
  • 5 The edge suggests the market is fairly priced with no clear mispricing.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
Increased tensions in the AI sector
High-profile controversies involving AI lab CEOs
Emergence of extremist groups targeting tech leaders
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $12,770
Liquidity $0
Resolves 31 Dec 2029
Status Open
Related Markets
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality...
25.27% NO manifold
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?...
5.33% NO manifold
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on ...
0.05% NO polymarket
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100...
13.99% NO manifold
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on M...
0.05% NO polymarket