Markets / AI & Tech / Will "Thoughts on the Pause AI protest" make the top fifty p...
Manifold AI & Tech Expires in 616 days OPEN

Will "Thoughts on the Pause AI protest" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

7.83%
Market YES
92.17%
Market NO
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Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
NO
Verdict
14.33%
AI YES
40
Confidence
35
Reliability
Insufficient data for confident assessment Edge: +6.5 pts

Low probability for the post to be in LessWrong's top fifty in 2026.

The market indicates a strong belief that the post will not make the top fifty, with a 92.17% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI shows slightly higher optimism at 14.33% for 'YES', but overall confidence remains low at 40/100, suggesting uncertainty in the prediction.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current sentiment heavily favors 'NO' at 92.17%.
  • 2 Pulse AI shows slightly more optimism with 14.33% for 'YES'.
  • 3 Market confidence is relatively low at 40/100.
  • 4 The edge of 6.5 indicates insufficient data for a confident assessment.
  • 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 16455 hours, allowing for potential shifts.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
Increased engagement or discussion around the post
Emergence of new AI-related trends influencing interest
Changes in LessWrong's review criteria or audience preferences
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $750
Liquidity $0
Resolves 01 Feb 2028
Status Open
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