Will we see an open source LLM model better than Opus 4.5 before the end of 2026?

High probability of a better open source LLM model by 2026.

The market shows an 85.24% probability for the emergence of an open source LLM model superior to Opus 4.5 before 2026. This aligns closely with the Pulse AI probability of 80.24%, indicating a consensus on the likelihood of advancements in this area. The edge of -5 suggests the market is fairly priced, reflecting moderate confidence in the prediction.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a new LLM model by 2026.
• 2 The high probability indicates confidence in ongoing AI advancements.
• 3 Historical trends show rapid development in open source AI technologies.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, supporting the current pricing.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with over 7000 hours until expiry.