Markets / AI & Tech / Will "What's up with Anthropic predicting AGI by ea..." make...

Manifold AI & Tech Expires in 246 days OPEN

Will "What's up with Anthropic predicting AGI by ea..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

10.04%

Market YES

89.96%

Market NO

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Pulse Score

Model v1 · Not financial advice

Verdict

16.54%

AI YES

Confidence

Reliability

Insufficient data for confident assessment Edge: +6.5 pts

Low probability for the post to make the top fifty in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review.

The market shows a strong inclination towards the post not making the top fifty, with a probability of 89.96% for 'NO'. Despite a higher AI probability of 16.54% for 'YES', the overall sentiment leans against the post's success, indicating skepticism among participants.

AI Market Analysis

1 Current market probability favors 'NO' significantly at 89.96%.
2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for 'YES' at 16.54%.
3 The edge of 6.5 indicates insufficient data for a confident assessment.
4 Confidence level is moderate at 55/100, reflecting uncertainty.
5 Time to expiry is substantial at 7588 hours, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.