Consensys IPO closing market cap above $1B?

Market sees a 64% chance of Consensys IPO exceeding $1B in market cap.

The prediction market indicates a 64% probability that Consensys will achieve a market cap above $1 billion at its IPO. This aligns closely with the Pulse AI's estimate of 59%, suggesting a consensus on the potential valuation. The market appears fairly priced with a slight edge of -5, indicating balanced sentiment.

• 1 Current market probability favors a successful IPO valuation above $1B.
• 2 Pulse AI's estimate is slightly lower than the market, indicating cautious optimism.
• 3 The edge of -5 suggests the market is fairly priced with no significant mispricing.
• 4 Confidence level of 55/100 reflects moderate certainty in the prediction.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential market shifts before the IPO.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Consensys’ market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Consensys’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.