FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

The market indicates a low probability for FDA approval of Retatrutide this year.

With a market probability of 16.5% for approval, the sentiment leans heavily towards a NO outcome. The Pulse AI probability slightly favors NO as well, suggesting a consensus on the challenges facing Retatrutide's approval process.

• 1 Current market sentiment is predominantly negative towards approval.
• 2 The market appears fairly priced with a low edge of 2.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 60 out of 100.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial at over 7000 hours, allowing for potential developments.
• 5 AI probability is slightly higher than market probability, indicating potential for shifts.

Retatrutide is a triple agonist hormone/peptide drug developed by Eli Lilly and currently in trial to treat obesity, fatty liver disease, type-2 diabetes, knee osteoarthritis, and more.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants a full or conditional approval for Eli Lilly’s for a drug product whose active ingredient is Eli Lilly’s retatrutide (including any brand name or identifier such as LY3437943) for any use between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

An approval is defined as:
For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA)
For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced
For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA)
For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application

The following constitute qualifying approvals:
Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit), Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints), Approval with Ris