Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?

Market indicates low probability for Gemini 3.5 release by March 31.

The prediction market shows a strong lean towards a 'NO' outcome for the release of Gemini 3.5 by March 31, with a market probability of 98% against a 2% probability for 'YES'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting a consensus that the release is unlikely within the specified timeframe.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The probability gap suggests a well-established consensus.
• 3 Confidence level of 75 indicates moderate certainty in predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry of 2698 hours allows for potential updates.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with a slight edge of 1.5.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 3.5 model is made available to the general public by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 3.5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.

Gemini 3.5 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.5 (e.g., Gemini 3.5 Pro would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3, similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 2.5. Products labeled as Gemini 4 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. Additional Gemini 3 models (e.g. a release of Gemini 3 Flash-lite) will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.