Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026?

Market shows a close split on Naim Qassem's tenure as Hezbollah's secretary-general.

The prediction market indicates a near-even split on whether Naim Qassem will step down by March 31, 2026, with a slight lean towards him remaining in position. The probabilities suggest uncertainty surrounding his leadership status, reflecting various political dynamics within Hezbollah. The market is assessed as fairly priced, indicating balanced sentiment among participants.

• 1 Current market probability shows YES at 44.50% and NO at 55.5%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability is slightly higher for YES at 46%.
• 3 Market edge of 1.5 suggests fair pricing of the probabilities.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is 513 hours, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time between December 16, 2025 and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.