Market indicates low probability of a new pandemic occurring in 2026.
The prediction market shows a strong consensus against the likelihood of a new pandemic in 2026, with a probability of only 12.5% for a YES outcome. Both the market and Pulse AI probabilities align closely, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a slight edge of 0.5. The confidence level of 75 out of 100 indicates a moderate level of certainty among participants.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.