New pandemic in 2026?

Market indicates low probability of a new pandemic occurring in 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against the likelihood of a new pandemic in 2026, with a probability of only 12.5% for a YES outcome. Both the market and Pulse AI probabilities align closely, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a slight edge of 0.5. The confidence level of 75 out of 100 indicates a moderate level of certainty among participants.

• 1 Current sentiment is predominantly negative towards a new pandemic in 2026.
• 2 Key factors include historical pandemic patterns and current global health trends.
• 3 The market shows a low liquidity context, indicating fewer active participants.
• 4 Time pressure is significant with 7113 hours until expiry, allowing for potential shifts.
• 5 Confidence level suggests moderate certainty but leaves room for unexpected developments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.