OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?

Market suggests low likelihood of OpenAI's $1t+ IPO before 2027.

The prediction market indicates a 25% probability for OpenAI achieving a $1 trillion IPO by 2027, with a consensus leaning towards 'NO' at 75%. The Pulse AI probability is slightly higher at 28%, suggesting some optimism but still reflecting skepticism about the timeline.

• 1 Current market sentiment is predominantly negative regarding the IPO timeline.
• 2 The market probability aligns closely with the Pulse AI assessment.
• 3 A confidence level of 60 indicates moderate certainty in the predictions.
• 4 The time to expiry of over 7000 hours provides ample time for market shifts.
• 5 Liquidity appears stable, with no extreme fluctuations noted in recent trading.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.

OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.

Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.

If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.

If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or