OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?

Market favors OpenAI IPO cap below $1.2T with a 64.5% probability.

The prediction market indicates a higher likelihood that OpenAI's IPO will close with a market cap below $1.2 trillion, with a 64.5% probability. The Pulse AI model slightly disagrees, estimating a 40% chance for a cap above this threshold, suggesting some divergence in sentiment among participants.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans towards a NO outcome for the IPO cap.
• 2 The market probability suggests a balanced view, with a slight edge towards NO.
• 3 Historical trends in tech IPOs may influence current expectations.
• 4 Liquidity in the market appears stable, reflecting investor caution.
• 5 Time remaining until expiry allows for potential shifts in sentiment.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the listed value. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.