OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?

Market sees a close split on OpenAI's IPO valuation exceeding $1 trillion.

The prediction market indicates a slight preference for OpenAI's IPO market cap not exceeding $1 trillion, with a 55% NO probability. The Pulse AI probability suggests a nearly even split, reflecting uncertainty in market sentiment. With a confidence level of 50/100 and a time to expiry of over 650 days, the market appears to be fairly priced.

• 1 Current market probability favors a NO outcome slightly at 55%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability indicates a near 50/50 split, showing uncertainty.
• 3 Market confidence is moderate at 50 out of 100.
• 4 Time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential market shifts.
• 5 Edge of 4.5 suggests the market is fairly priced based on available data.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the listed value. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.