SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?

Market shows high confidence in SpaceX IPO exceeding $1T market cap.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief, with a 90.5% probability, that SpaceX's IPO will close with a market cap above $1 trillion. This aligns closely with the Pulse AI's assessment of 88.5%, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a slight edge of -2. The confidence level of 65 out of 100 indicates moderate certainty among participants.

• 1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly positive towards SpaceX's valuation.
• 2 Key factors include SpaceX's growth potential and recent funding rounds.
• 3 Historical base rates for tech IPOs suggest high volatility but strong returns.
• 4 Liquidity in the market appears stable, supporting current probabilities.
• 5 Time pressure is significant with 15857 hours until expiry, influencing trading behavior.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.