SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?

Market sentiment is split on SpaceX achieving full reusability by 2027.

The prediction market shows a near-even split in probabilities for SpaceX's Starship being fully reusable before 2027, with a slight edge towards 'NO'. The Pulse AI suggests a marginally higher likelihood for 'YES', indicating some optimism, but overall confidence remains moderate at 60 out of 100.

• 1 Market probability is closely balanced, indicating uncertainty.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slight bias towards optimism for reusability.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate, reflecting mixed sentiment.
• 4 Time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential developments.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with a small edge noted.

On February 28, Elon Musk posted that it was likely Starship would become fully reusable in 2025. You can see the X post here: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1895598258225106984

This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX or Elon Musk announces that Starship is fully reusable by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note, this market refers to the Starship upper stage and does not require reusability for the Super-Heavy booster.

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is not necessary that an actual reuse occur, only that SpaceX or Elon Musk announces that Starship is fully reusable by this market's resolution date.

The resolution source for this market is announcements by Elon Musk and SpaceX, or their official representatives.