Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?

Low probability of a Tesla and SpaceX merger announcement by June 30.

The prediction market shows a 7.5% probability for a merger announcement between Tesla and SpaceX by June 30, indicating skepticism among participants. The Pulse AI model suggests a slightly higher probability of 10.5%, but both sources lean heavily towards a 'NO' outcome. With a confidence level of 60/100 and a fair pricing edge, the market reflects a cautious stance on this potential merger.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The probability of a merger announcement is low based on existing data.
• 3 Historical trends suggest mergers in this sector are rare.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent participant engagement.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 2677 hours until the market expires.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.

Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.