Will Alibaba have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

The market strongly favors NO for Alibaba having the best AI coding model.

Current market probabilities indicate a low likelihood (0.15%) of Alibaba having the best AI model for coding by March 31. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, with a 1.65% probability for YES, suggesting that the market is generally aligned in its expectations. With a confidence level of 75/100, the market appears to be fairly priced regarding this prediction.

• 1 Market probability for YES is extremely low at 0.15%.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slightly higher YES probability at 1.65%.
• 3 The market's edge is 1.5, indicating fair pricing.
• 4 Confidence level of 75/100 suggests moderate certainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is 365 hours, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve to the company that owns the model with the top LiveBench “coding average” score on the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/) on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

If two models are tied for the top LiveBench coding average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “coding average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.